Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ac5…4f92 crypto 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (468 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$210 (+1%) realized +$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate60%151W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day468.4pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,290
7 days−$1,510
14 days−$1,488
30 days−$1,488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$316
sports 19% +$635
other 6% +$410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (468 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 -17.1% -25.0% 60% 26% -15.0%
≤30d 250 -16.4% -24.3% 60% 26% -14.9%
≤90d 250 -16.4% -24.3% 60% 26% -14.9%
all 250 -16.4% -24.3% 60% 26% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover468.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 26% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 15% -23.0%
15% -38.2% 8% -30.5%
20% -44.2% 5% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$59 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses151 / 99
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)250 / 209
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$105
Trades / day468.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 250 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$100 -152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$100 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$99 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $96 −$100 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$82 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$90 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$11 -138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$70 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.41 · official $113.41 (match) · 3500 history records