Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ac5…8235 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$337 (-31%) realized −$338 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$46
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$389
world 4% +$48
other 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -47.7% -52.7% 33% 33% -33.6%
≤90d 11 -39.2% -45.0% 45% 45% -48.6%
all 18 -7.0% -15.8% 61% 33% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 33% -41.1%
10% -23.9% 22% -46.8%
15% -31.2% 22% -51.9%
20% -38.0% 11% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$76 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$338
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage178d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 66¢ 66¢ $111 $112 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 17 $118 −$117 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $124 +$71 +57%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 26 $113 −$112 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $102 +$38 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 12 $83 −$82 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $175 −$174 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 04 $13 +$2 +17%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 04 $57 +$21 +38%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 04 $68 +$13 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru Mar 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $12 +$1 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 19 $12 +$48 +400%
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Clavicular charged by Jan 31? Feb 03 $18 $0 +2%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 06 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 66¢ $112 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 72¢ $118 9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $124 14d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 62¢ $25 25d
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs BUY Ozarox Esports 72¢ $113 31d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 72¢ $102 37d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 62¢ $83 45d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 85¢ $87 53d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 85¢ $88 53d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $68 59d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 72¢ $57 62d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 69¢ $24 70d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru BUY No 100¢ $11 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $13 115d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 96¢ $12 122d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? BUY Yes $2 136d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 157d
Clavicular charged by Jan 31? BUY No 98¢ $18 160d
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? BUY No 100¢ $10 171d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.85 · official $111.85 (match) · 31 history records