Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ac4…7076 crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (254 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$134 (+2%) realized +$197 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%61W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day254.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$392
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (254 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 37% -13.7%
≤30d 126 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 37% -13.7%
≤90d 126 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 37% -13.7%
all 126 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 37% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover254.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 37% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 30% -21.9%
15% -30.2% 24% -29.5%
20% -37.0% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$197
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses61 / 65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage2d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day254.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 24¢ 16¢ $200 $137 −$63 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $238 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$50 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $235 +$212 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $76 −$73 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$29 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$48 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $124 −$18 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$29 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$29 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$43 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $237 −$120 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$69 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $107 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $128 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $81 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $416 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $28 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.33 · official $112.36 · 409 history records