Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ac4…4f44 other 477 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (181 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$2,197 (+59%) realized +$2,288 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%110W / 101L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day181.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,095now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$80
tech 27% −$33
politics 16% +$25
world 13% +$7
economics 5% −$1
crypto 4% +$13
finance 1% +$2
culture 1% +$5
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (181 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +83.6% +66.1% 58% 43% -0.8%
≤30d 211 +48.1% +34.0% 52% 40% -3.3%
≤90d 211 +48.1% +34.0% 52% 40% -3.3%
all 211 +48.1% +34.0% 52% 40% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover181.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.0% 40% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here +21.1% 32% -12.6%
15% +9.4% 26% -21.0%
20% -1.3% 20% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +84% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,095
Realized+$2,288
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses110 / 101
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions499
Markets (closed)211 / 477
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day181.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 499 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? Yes 0¢ 32¢ $0 $32 +$32 (+10533%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 5¢ 15¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+200%)
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$2 (+28%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+121%)
Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+83%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+233%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-03 House seat? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+352%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+42%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corporation? Yes 5¢ 20¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+290%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+280%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$13 +109352%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 29 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 29 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $1 $0 +16%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 29 $70 +$8 +11%
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $2 $0 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 29 $124 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 29 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 29 $52 −$1 -2%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 29 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $6 $0 -6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 29 $77 −$2 -2%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 29 $9 +$3 +34%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 29 $2 +$2 +63%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 29 $14 −$1 -6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 29 $102 +$5 +5%
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 28 $3 $0 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $201 +$3 +2%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 28 $15 +$8 +49%
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $12 +$10 +79%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $2 +$2 +112%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 28 $2 $0 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 28 $1 $0 +9%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $17 +$1 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 28 $31 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 28 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $86 −$7 -8%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $2 $0 -14%
Alix Earle and Tom Brady confirmed relationship by June 30? Jun 28 $0 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +66%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 27 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 27 $22 +$16 +76%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Jun 27 $0 $0 +4722%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Jun 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 27 $12 +$2 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 27 $39 −$16 -40%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $0 $0 +0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? Jun 27 $0 $0 -62%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Jun 27 $2 +$5 +196%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1 $0 +17%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 27 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6h
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
James Norton announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 8h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 8h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 10h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 10h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 10h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,095.09 · official $1,106.83 · 3500 history records