Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7A 0x7ac3…e2c1 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$239 (+10%) realized +$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$134
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$237
crypto 41% +$308
sports 8% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 33% +19.4%
≤30d 3 +14.8% +3.9% 67% 33% +19.4%
≤90d 14 +11.7% +1.1% 36% 29% +3.9%
all 14 +11.7% +1.1% 36% 29% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 29% +3.9%
10% -8.6% 29% -6.1%
15% -17.4% 29% -15.1%
20% -25.5% 29% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$384 vs −$174 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage49d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $162 +$229 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $157 +$5 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $194 −$190 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $208 +$265 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $131 −$125 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 24 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $25 −$23 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 24 $109 +$157 +144%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $359 −$350 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $195 +$1,265 +649%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $194 −$190 -98%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $139 −$136 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $361 −$352 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 27¢ $194 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 34d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $359 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 34d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,460 34d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $194 34d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $195 34d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $139 42d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 14¢ $162 48d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 18¢ $199 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records