Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ac3…d97f world 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$15
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$15
other 28% −$9
politics 25% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 18% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 17 -3.9% -13.1% 18% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 62 -2.7% -12.0% 24% 0% -10.4%
all 77 -6.1% -15.0% 30% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 1% -10.4%
10% -23.1% 1% -19.0%
15% -30.6% 1% -26.8%
20% -37.4% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage518d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 72¢ 76¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $63 −$11 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $47 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $67 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 11 $7 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $131 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $17 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $98 −$4 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $7 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 04 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $10 24m
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 26¢ $21 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $42 45h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $42 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $43 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $43 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $32 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $0.24 (match) · 311 history records