Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7ac2…c424 other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 89L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$3
politics 18% −$4
sports 6% +$23
economics 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 +1.5% -8.1% 13% 8% -9.4%
all 101 +1.5% -8.2% 12% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 8% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 8% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 89
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage95d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $401 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $427 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $319 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $330 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $399 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $204 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $561 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $399 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $397 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $187 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $356 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $408 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $408 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $370 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $346 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $417 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $419 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $356 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Dustin Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $366 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 4h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 25h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 29h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $92 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 15d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 15d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $40 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 26d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 26d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 26d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 26d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $32 29d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $32 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.60 · official $144.61 (match) · 309 history records