Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ac0…7327 sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-15%) realized −$15 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 53% −$48
crypto 15% −$1
sports 11% +$7
politics 7% −$7
tech 6% −$3
other 5% +$8
world 3% −$10
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 77 -0.0% -9.5% 39% 34% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 34% -14.3%
10% -18.2% 29% -22.5%
15% -26.1% 23% -30.0%
20% -33.3% 23% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage189d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $83 $41 −$41 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $2 −$1 -54%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $11 +$2 +18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jan 02 $1 $0 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 23 $1 +$4 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 23 $31 +$7 +23%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2025-12-22? Dec 23 $1 +$4 +426%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Dec 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Dec 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Dec 21 $1 +$2 +245%
Will Levante UD vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? Dec 21 $1 +$2 +245%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 21 $2 +$6 +285%
Will Lululemon (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-14? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 19 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $18 −$9 -49%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 10? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Western Carolina Catamounts vs. Virginia Tech Hokies Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OGC Nice vs. SC Braga end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland vs. KRC Genk end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 11? Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Red Wings vs. Oilers Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ferencvárosi TC vs. Rangers FC end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Noah FA vs. Legia Warszawa end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Samsunspor vs. AEK end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-13? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Dec 19 $1 +$2 +248%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-13? Dec 15 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $87 2h
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 152d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 152d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 152d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 152d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 166d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $37 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $14 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 176d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 15¢ $1 176d
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 6¢ $5 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 177d
Will Girona FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 178d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 187d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 187d
Will Girona FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 188d
Will Valencia CF vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 188d
Will Levante UD vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 188d
Will Villarreal CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 188d
Will Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 188d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 188d
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 188d
Will no listed leader be out in 2025? BUY No 10¢ $1 188d
Will Lululemon (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 5¢ $1 188d
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 10¢ $1 188d
Will Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 5¢ $1 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.27 · official $41.27 (match) · 161 history records