Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7abb…3238 politics 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$315 (-4%) realized −$315 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate74%40W / 14L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$346
other 17% +$181
crypto 4% −$90
sports 0% −$15
world 0% −$25
culture 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -55.3% -59.6% 40% 20% -27.5%
≤30d 5 -55.3% -59.6% 40% 20% -27.5%
≤90d 5 -55.3% -59.6% 40% 20% -27.5%
all 54 -10.4% -19.0% 74% 39% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 39% -13.3%
10% -26.7% 17% -21.6%
15% -33.8% 4% -29.1%
20% -40.3% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$60 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses40 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage516d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $47 +$3 +5%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? Jul 10 $1,434 +$1 +0%
Will Jin's "Don't Say You Love Me" break top 5 on Billboard Global top Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September? Jun 10 $330 $0 +0%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July? Jun 04 $596 +$92 +16%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Seoul (서울) in the 2025 Korean Presidential elec Jun 04 $145 +$11 +7%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $1,488 +$91 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $699 +$93 +13%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 01 $89 +$7 +8%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Ko May 29 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 29 $95 +$25 +26%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec May 27 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Kor May 26 $38 +$5 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on May 27? May 26 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 08 $542 +$40 +7%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea May 07 $118 +$10 +8%
Lee Jae-myung arrested in 2025? Apr 30 $101 +$17 +17%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Apr 26 $3 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Apr 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? Apr 04 $44 +$6 +14%
Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 01 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 27 $46 +$4 +8%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 26 $36 −$11 -31%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Mar 24 $21 +$4 +18%
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Mar 24 $3 +$1 +24%
Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Mar 24 $5 +$2 +46%
North Korea missile test before April? Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested before April? Mar 20 $467 +$57 +12%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Mar 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Kraken vs. Blackhawks Mar 19 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Mar 18 $37 +$2 +6%
Will Fulham win on 2025-03-16? Mar 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Mar 12 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? Mar 10 $40 +$10 +26%
New state Bitcoin reserve before March? Mar 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 02 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Kostas Tasoulas be next Greek President? Feb 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday? Feb 03 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 27 $34 +$4 +10%
Will Tottenham vs. Leicester end in a draw? Jan 26 $7 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 93¢ $47 3d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $52 3d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $851 345d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $585 375d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September? SELL No 97¢ $330 375d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $27 379d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $45 379d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September? BUY No 97¢ $137 380d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September? BUY No 97¢ $193 380d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $9 380d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $18 380d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $45 380d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $45 380d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? BUY No 92¢ $552 381d
Will Jin's "Don't Say You Love Me" break top 5 on Billboard Global top BUY Yes 85¢ $8 382d
Will Jin's "Don't Say You Love Me" break top 5 on Billboard Global top BUY Yes 85¢ $15 382d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $470 382d
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $223 382d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July? SELL No 99¢ $149 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY Yes 97¢ $503 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 382d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 100¢ $606 382d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July? BUY No 93¢ $7 384d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July? BUY No 93¢ $20 384d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records