Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7aba…7456 world 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%31W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$9
other 19% +$2
politics 15% +$3
sports 14% −$3
economics 3% $0
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 29 +67.9% +51.9% 24% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 90 +20.2% +8.8% 29% 2% -9.6%
all 102 +25.7% +13.7% 30% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 3% -9.6%
10% +2.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -7.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -16.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses31 / 71
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 105
History coverage396d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-59%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 73¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $93 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $189 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $166 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $73 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $94 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $83 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $137 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $125 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $3 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $25 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $49 −$3 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $374 +$3 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $98 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $92 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $91 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $101 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $4 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $70 $0 -1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $12 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $104 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $192 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $4 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $107 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $192 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $185 −$1 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $290 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $62 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $162 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $217 −$3 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $136 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $15 16m
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $32 16m
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $47 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $94 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 74¢ $93 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $87 20h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $7 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $93 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $93 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $93 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $70 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $23 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $94 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $72 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $72 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $4 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $69 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $73 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $94 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $94 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 444 history records