Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ab9…8fc3 crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%31W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day135.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$15
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 48% -13.6%
≤30d 50 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 48% -13.6%
≤90d 50 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 48% -13.6%
all 50 -2.6% -11.9% 62% 48% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 48% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 22% -21.9%
15% -28.0% 8% -29.4%
20% -35.1% 6% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses31 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day135.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 -3%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records