Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7A 0x7ab7…d144 sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,479 (-4%) realized −$1,675 · open +$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%89W / 126L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days+$82
14 days+$1,752
30 days+$1,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,635
crypto 36% −$1,456
other 10% +$482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 57% -0.7%
≤30d 47 +76.3% +59.5% 34% 30% -1.2%
≤90d 195 +26.7% +14.6% 40% 38% -18.2%
all 215 +26.0% +14.0% 41% 38% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.0% 38% -19.5%
10% +3.1% 33% -27.2%
15% -6.9% 29% -34.2%
20% -16.0% 25% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$114 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$796
Realized−$1,675
Unrealized+$196
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses89 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions4
Markets (closed)215 / 219
History coverage97d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 33¢ $200 $373 +$173 (+87%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $532 −$140 -26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $711 −$466 -66%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $405 +$244 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $615 +$433 +70%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $318 −$36 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $38 −$33 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 07 $20 +$189 +925%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $105 −$81 -77%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $37 +$1,792 +4895%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $97 −$92 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $3 +$34 +1073%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $55 +$399 +721%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 31 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 31 $296 −$198 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 31 $22 −$10 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? May 30 $24 −$22 -90%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $83 −$5 -6%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $69 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 28 $39 +$43 +112%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $20 +$1 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? May 25 $50 −$8 -16%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $74 +$13 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $97 −$23 -23%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $118 −$19 -16%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 25 $37 −$24 -65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 24 $992 −$378 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 24 $67 +$50 +75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 24 $32 −$18 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $5 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $20 −$16 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $11 −$8 -74%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 21 $42 −$20 -49%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 21 $18 −$3 -15%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal May 21 $16 +$2 +10%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 20 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $90 +$125 +139%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 19 $401 −$302 -75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 19 $337 −$191 -57%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 18 $37 −$37 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $212 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 44h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 44h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $391 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $532 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $306 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 33¢ $229 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $405 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $648 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 62¢ $405 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $202 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,049 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 77¢ $406 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $209 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 45¢ $104 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $282 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $318 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $209 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 51¢ $424 11d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? SELL Yes 7¢ $24 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 27¢ $105 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,828 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 13¢ $11 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 22¢ $97 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $796.28 · official $800.82 (match) · 548 history records