Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7ab6…fa77
politics · 223 markets active 15h ago
0.0score
+$1,519 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$296 · open −$1,264
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$5,185
Realized−$296
Unrealized−$1,264
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions500
Markets (closed)54 / 223
Avg bet$38
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 500 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$239
14 days−$242
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $155 $186 +$31 (+20%)
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $39 $110 +$71 (+184%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $91 $89 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $3 $85 +$82 (+2800%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $57 $74 +$17 (+30%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $77 $72 −$5 (-7%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $51 $71 +$19 (+38%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE? Yes 2¢ 21¢ $6 $63 +$57 (+981%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $49 $58 +$9 (+19%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $56 $50 −$6 (-11%)
Will the Republican Party win the CO-02 House seat? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $51 $47 −$4 (-8%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-5%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $96 $44 −$53 (-55%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $25 $42 +$18 (+72%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+7%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 3¢ 12¢ $9 $39 +$30 (+322%)
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+25%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? Yes 5¢ 15¢ $13 $37 +$24 (+187%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $43 $36 −$6 (-15%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $31 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $43 $35 −$8 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 09 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $593 −$61 -10%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Jun 09 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $79 +$33 +42%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $362 −$165 -46%
Will Jaxson Dart attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $341 −$110 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 08 $234 −$32 -14%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $50 +$31 +61%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $1 $0 -10%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 08 $143 +$14 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 08 $256 +$11 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $54 +$5 +9%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? Jun 06 $63 +$11 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +316%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 05 $39 +$19 +50%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -99%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 04 $22 −$13 -58%
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +56%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 03 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $APBC? Jun 03 $0 $0 +27%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on Jun 02 $2 −$1 -75%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $40 +$16 +41%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $38 +$10 +25%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 01 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 01 $10 +$2 +17%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $0 $0 +150%
Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayora May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? May 03 $7 $0 +2%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pres May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026 May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex Cole-Hamilton be the next First Minister of Scotland followi May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $75 −$30 -40%
Will Thomas Welby win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 1.0%? May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–2.00 in April? May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in April? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.75 in April? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$3.75 in April? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in April? May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in April? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in April? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 40% −$186
other 38% −$851
finance 9% −$162
sports 6% −$305
tech 5% −$6
world 2% −$15
economics 0% −$33
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL No 3¢ $13 14h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 27h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 30h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 31h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 38h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 43h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 45h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 45h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 45h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 45h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 45h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 45h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL No 3¢ $3 46h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 46h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 46h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $1 47h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL No 3¢ $1 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL No 3¢ $3 47h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $20 47h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +22.0% +10.4% 61% 33% -19.0%
≤30d 30 +19.7% +8.3% 67% 50% -18.5%
≤90d 54 -29.9% -36.6% 39% 28% -20.0%
all 54 -29.9% -36.6% 39% 28% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 28% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -42.6% 22% -27.7%
15% -48.2% 15% -34.7%
20% -53.3% 7% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,184.81 · official $5,220.17 (match) · 3500 history records