Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ab5…e123 world 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,984 (+868%) realized +$16,991 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate69%150W / 68L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$125
other 16% −$4
crypto 7% +$32
finance 5% −$1
sports 3% +$3
tech 3% +$2
politics 3% +$1
economics 1% +$8
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -26.9% -33.8% 33% 0% -38.3%
≤30d 57 +0.6% -9.0% 70% 28% +6.6%
≤90d 182 +3.6% -6.3% 68% 20% +2.9%
all 218 +3.4% -6.4% 69% 19% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 19% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 11% -7.8%
15% -23.6% 7% -16.7%
20% -31.1% 6% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$16,991
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses150 / 68
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions62
Markets (closed)218 / 268
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 97¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+34%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $19 $7 −$12 (-61%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 65¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 71¢ 95¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 73¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $22 −$6 -27%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $2 $0 +6%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 −$3 -34%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $4 −$1 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $64 +$79 +123%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +317%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +23%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 $0 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $4 $0 -8%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +51%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$5 +78%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +23%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $14 $0 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -68%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $17 −$4 -25%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -85%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $71 +$21 +30%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$6 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $36 +$5 +14%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +2%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +7%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $1 49m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? SELL No 58¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $0 1h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $0 2h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $0 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 65¢ $4 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $0 10h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $0 10h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $0 10h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $2 18h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 78¢ $0 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 76¢ $1 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 76¢ $0 30h
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY No 100¢ $5 36h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $5 39h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 81¢ $1 40h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 81¢ $0 40h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 81¢ $0 40h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 81¢ $0 40h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 81¢ $0 40h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 41h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 75¢ $4 41h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 66¢ $3 44h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $1 45h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 93¢ $1 2d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.66 · official $213.70 · 3500 history records