Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7ab4…d09c other 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$360 (+8%) realized +$368 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%88W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$102
14 days+$65
30 days+$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$382
crypto 6% +$4
sports 4% +$4
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +33.4% +20.7% 78% 56% +13.2%
≤30d 36 +22.8% +11.1% 56% 50% +4.5%
≤90d 86 +6.0% -4.1% 52% 49% +1.0%
all 187 +1.0% -8.6% 47% 44% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 44% -0.3%
10% -17.3% 44% -9.9%
15% -25.3% 42% -18.6%
20% -32.6% 36% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$368
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses88 / 99
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)187 / 202
History coverage157d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 −$1 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 22 $173 +$13 +7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$19 +63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$45 +149%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $31 +$12 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$18 +59%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 −$3 -11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $11 +$27 +232%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $41 +$25 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $32 +$28 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $71 −$71 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $82 +$77 +93%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 20 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $4 $0 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 +$32 +64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $41 +$26 +64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 10 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $68 +$45 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 41¢ $29 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL 50¢ $11 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 45¢ $10 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL 50¢ $54 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 46¢ $51 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL 50¢ $54 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 46¢ $51 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL 50¢ $33 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 45¢ $30 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL 50¢ $33 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 45¢ $30 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 38¢ $31 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL 55¢ $43 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL 64¢ $21 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 61¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 49¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 49¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 53¢ $28 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 42¢ $31 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 98¢ $48 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.44 · official $242.44 · 587 history records