Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7ab3…f750 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$14
politics 38% −$17
sports 7% +$56
economics 6% −$2
tech 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 119 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 129 +2.6% -7.1% 9% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.0% 5% -18.1%
15% -24.1% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.6% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×12.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage116d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $185 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $389 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $217 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $238 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $408 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $243 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $240 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,235 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $224 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $262 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $252 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $210 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $233 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $197 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $237 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $268 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $278 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $220 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 20d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 20d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $34 21d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $34 21d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 21d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $265 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $265 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $185 27d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $185 28d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 28d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 30d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 30d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 30d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 31d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 31d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $187 32d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $187 32d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 33d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 34d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $251 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 384 history records