Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ab3…b236 other 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$170 (-1%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%25W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$151
politics 26% −$11
sports 21% −$10
crypto 8% −$4
economics 5% +$1
culture 5% −$3
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 69 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 154 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 268 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses25 / 243
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)268 / 269
History coverage157d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $13 $0 -4%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 -1%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 07 $104 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $17 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $13 $0 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $16 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $20 $0 -2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $33 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $122 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $152 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $169 −$1 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $133 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $39 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $21 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 27 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 93¢ $11 53m
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $18 1h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $18 9h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 9h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 14h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $18 14h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $19 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 25h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 25h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 32h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $18 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $18 41h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $8 41h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $8 46h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $10 47h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 93¢ $17 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $7 3d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $12 3d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $13 3d
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY No 92¢ $9 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $13 3d
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL No 88¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.22 · official $11.22 (match) · 1071 history records