Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ab3…cbbd politics 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$21
14 days−$25
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$14
other 27% −$29
sports 25% −$15
crypto 7% −$2
finance 4% −$5
culture 3% −$4
world 3% +$5
economics 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 57 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 129 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage102d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $397 −$3 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $197 −$4 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $158 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $797 −$2 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $155 −$2 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $660 −$3 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $142 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $346 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $52 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 05 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $60 −$4 -6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $58 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $57 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $101 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $91 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $235 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $145 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 96¢ $47 47m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $50 7h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 14h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 14h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 22h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 22h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $46 23h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $46 30h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $50 31h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $50 37h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $53 37h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 41h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 41h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 42h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $53 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $54 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $43 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $43 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $60 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $62 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.19 · official $47.19 (match) · 512 history records