Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ab3…517c sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$147 (-2%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%102W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$113
crypto 33% −$201
other 5% −$63
tech 2% +$40
finance 2% −$3
politics 2% +$5
world 1% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +38.3% +25.1% 100% 100% +25.1%
≤30d 2 -30.9% -37.5% 50% 50% -14.7%
≤90d 32 -28.8% -35.5% 50% 44% -23.3%
all 164 -5.8% -14.7% 62% 47% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 47% -10.8%
10% -22.9% 32% -19.3%
15% -30.4% 25% -27.1%
20% -37.2% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses102 / 62
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage241d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $110 +$42 +38%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $52 −$51 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $1 −$1 -52%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - May 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Anduril IPO before 2027? May 12 $13 −$8 -58%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste May 08 $112 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 08 $5 −$4 -70%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 08 $95 +$25 +26%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $231 −$44 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 04 $25 +$4 +17%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 02 $12 +$6 +46%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $27 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 20 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 04 $282 −$231 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 31 $32 +$2 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 31 $10 +$4 +38%
Celtics vs. Hawks Mar 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $12 +$7 +54%
Credit One Charleston Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Donna Vekic Mar 31 $190 +$61 +32%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alex Bolt vs Yibing Wu Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 30 $25 +$5 +19%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner Mar 30 $150 +$11 +8%
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $67 −$67 -100%
Naples: Daniel Altmaier vs Enrico Dalla Valle Mar 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Thunder vs. Bucks Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 23 $11 +$2 +19%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $10 +$2 +23%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Mar 17 $119 +$30 +25%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Mar 17 $86 +$13 +15%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 15 $15 +$6 +39%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $68 +$22 +33%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $20 +$10 +51%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $159 +$16 +10%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 09 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 02 $137 +$99 +72%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $87 −$50 -58%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Jan 31 $36 +$3 +9%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 30 $5 +$4 +75%
Pistons vs. Suns Jan 30 $5 +$8 +156%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 29 $19 +$5 +25%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $152 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $110 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 23d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 23d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 23d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 23d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $5 41d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Invictus Gaming 19¢ $0 41d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 38¢ $1 41d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $5 41d
Anduril IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste SELL Hailey Baptiste 100¢ $126 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Hailey Baptiste 87¢ $110 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste SELL Simona Waltert $0 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Simona Waltert 44¢ $1 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Simona Waltert 59¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 45d
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner SELL Movistar KOI 100¢ $119 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic SELL Dino Prizmic 82¢ $152 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Dino Prizmic 81¢ $47 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Dino Prizmic 75¢ $10 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Dino Prizmic 79¢ $91 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 29¢ $27 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 44¢ $9 45d
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 76¢ $22 45d
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 77¢ $12 45d
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 80¢ $60 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 72¢ $77 45d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 68¢ $1 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 506 history records