Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7aa7…90fe sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$188 (-3%) realized −$91 · open −$97
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%65W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$226
14 days+$226
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$331
other 22% −$67
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.7% -43.6% 38% 38% +9.7%
≤30d 8 -37.7% -43.6% 38% 38% +9.7%
≤90d 119 -13.6% -21.8% 55% 51% -11.3%
all 119 -13.6% -21.8% 55% 51% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 51% -11.3%
10% -29.3% 43% -19.7%
15% -36.1% 31% -27.5%
20% -42.4% 24% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$33 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses65 / 54
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage76d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 10¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-94%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 15¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$88 +43%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$15 -48%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$24 -76%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $407 +$94 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $30 +$22 +71%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $35 −$35 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $122 −$30 -25%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $51 −$36 -71%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $71 +$33 +47%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $131 +$33 +25%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $96 +$59 +62%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $91 −$30 -33%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $50 −$40 -80%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $51 +$36 +71%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $20 −$18 -90%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $31 +$10 +33%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $20 +$13 +65%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $40 −$26 -65%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $73 +$55 +76%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $143 +$43 +30%
Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $80 −$65 -82%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $180 −$157 -87%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $65 +$9 +13%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $30 +$20 +65%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $50 −$9 -18%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $50 +$21 +42%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $53 −$52 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $30 +$5 +16%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $60 −$59 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $30 +$8 +27%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 20 $50 +$15 +30%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 19 $60 −$59 -99%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Apr 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $99 −$98 -98%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $57 −$57 -99%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 16 $40 +$29 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $291 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes $16 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes $7 5h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes $31 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes $31 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 8h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $500 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $407 20h
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 40¢ $68 42d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? SELL Yes 97¢ $52 42d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 42d
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 43d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 25¢ $31 43d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 92¢ $140 43d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $15 44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 59¢ $91 44d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 44d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 44d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs SELL Timberwolves 47¢ $105 44d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 25¢ $20 44d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $51 44d
76ers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 91¢ $164 44d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 72¢ $131 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $2.92 (match) · 264 history records