Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7aa2…9c82 sports 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,052 (-10%) realized −$1,047 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate76%136W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$191
14 days+$191
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$578
crypto 35% −$176
other 1% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +34.3% +21.5% 80% 80% +27.7%
≤30d 40 -9.0% -17.6% 75% 58% -10.7%
≤90d 178 -12.4% -20.8% 76% 28% -17.1%
all 178 -12.4% -20.8% 76% 28% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 28% -17.1%
10% -28.3% 10% -25.1%
15% -35.3% 3% -32.3%
20% -41.6% 3% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$41 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$1,047
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses136 / 42
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage74d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 90¢ $301 $296 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $185 +$113 +61%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $138 +$48 +34%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$85 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $61 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +24%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) May 27 $118 −$115 -98%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) May 27 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) May 27 $114 −$112 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea May 27 $40 +$3 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $30 +$9 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra May 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Marie Bouzkova May 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks May 27 $30 +$8 +28%
Spread: Saint-Etienne (-1.5) May 26 $141 +$28 +20%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5) May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka May 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang May 26 $43 +$6 +13%
Vicenza: Remy Bertola vs Moez Echargui May 26 $50 +$8 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Alice Tubello May 26 $50 +$7 +13%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) May 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Fredrikstad FK (-1.5) May 25 $50 +$5 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Botic van de Zandschulp May 25 $50 +$5 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino May 25 $20 +$3 +14%
Vicenza: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Raul Brancaccio May 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Spread: Hamarkameratene (-2.5) May 25 $10 $0 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic May 25 $30 +$3 +11%
Centurion: Luca Castelnuovo vs Semen Pankin May 25 $50 +$15 +30%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) May 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: IK Start (-2.5) May 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Málaga CF (-2.5) May 24 $30 +$7 +24%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5) May 24 $100 +$14 +14%
Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5) May 24 $50 +$6 +12%
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5) May 24 $17 +$1 +7%
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5) May 24 $35 +$11 +30%
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5) May 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5) May 24 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5) May 03 $1 −$1 -90%
Spread: Getafe CF (-1.5) May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $1 +$1 +111%
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) May 03 $1 $0 +3%
Spread: AS Nancy-Lorraine (-1.5) May 02 $169 −$169 -100%
Spread: Como 1907 (-2.5) May 02 $157 +$8 +5%
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5) May 02 $160 −$159 -100%
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5) May 02 $146 +$14 +10%
Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5) May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Torino FC (-1.5) May 02 $148 +$12 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $302 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 61¢ $185 25h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY 74¢ $138 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $56 2d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 36¢ $118 20d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $118 20d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 28¢ $12 20d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $102 20d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 85¢ $100 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea SELL Sorana Cirstea 100¢ $43 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Sorana Cirstea 92¢ $40 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra BUY Jasmine Paolini 90¢ $40 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Marie Bouzkova SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $31 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets BUY Marta Kostyuk 77¢ $30 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $39 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 97¢ $30 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks BUY Viktorija Golubic 77¢ $30 20d
Spread: Saint-Etienne (-1.5) SELL Nice 100¢ $169 21d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5) BUY Miami Marlins 89¢ $50 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $55 21d
Spread: Saint-Etienne (-1.5) BUY Nice 83¢ $40 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 90¢ $50 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Facundo Acosta 100¢ $49 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Facundo Acosta 88¢ $43 21d
Spread: Saint-Etienne (-1.5) BUY Nice 83¢ $101 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.09 · official $296.09 (match) · 396 history records