Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 7 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $320 $280 −$40 (-12%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $240 $255 +$15 (+6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $210 $195 −$15 (-7%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $160 $180 +$20 (+12%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $140 +$20 (+17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $140 +$20 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December meeting? Yes $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? No 85¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET Up 40¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 88¢ $409 $0 −$409 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Bucks 29¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Hanwha Life Esports 19¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $320 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $540 +$30 +6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $440 +$40 +9%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $420 −$40 -10%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $380 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $240 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,948 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,952 −$2 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,950 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 16 $440 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $440 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 16 $456 −$2 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $396 +$49 +12%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $203 +$4 +2%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Dec 16 $979 −$24 -2%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Dec 13 $192 −$16 -8%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 11 $445 −$35 -8%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 11 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 02 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 in November? Dec 02 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 02 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 02 $194 +$6 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 28 $35 +$4 +10%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 28 $409 −$409 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December meeting? Nov 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 20 $15 −$8 -51%
Hornets vs. Raptors Nov 18 $8 +$2 +27%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Nov 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Magic vs. Rockets Nov 17 $26 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 15? Nov 16 $96 +$4 +4%
Hornets vs. Bucks Nov 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 11 $123 +$77 +63%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $2,662 +$238 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Nov 04 $11 −$10 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET Nov 04 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $22 −$12 -56%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 01 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? Nov 01 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 01 $133 +$3 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $38 $0 +1%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $110 +$26 +24%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 25 $95 +$15 +16%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $12 −$6 -51%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $30 −$9 -30%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 22 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 19 $86 +$14 +16%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 18 $132 −$132 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $556 +$70 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$180
politics 29% +$164
sports 5% −$26
economics 3% +$47
crypto 2% +$7
world 0% +$4
tech 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $320 47m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $240 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $80 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $80 4h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $47 6h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 6h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $200 6h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $69 6h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.8% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 69 -9.4% -18.1% 58% 16% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 16% -8.5%
10% -25.9% 6% -17.2%
15% -33.1% 3% -25.2%
20% -39.6% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,190.56 · official $1,190.56 (match) · 665 history records