Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7aa1…e126 sports 24 markets active 23h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$70,834 (+35%) realized +$70,872 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$8,372per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2,952est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25,002
7 days−$13,889
14 days+$10,621
30 days+$55,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$71,444
crypto 1% −$1,440
other 1% −$1,225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -28.3% -35.1% 20% 20% -33.1%
≤30d 12 +25.7% +13.7% 50% 50% +19.8%
≤90d 22 -7.1% -16.0% 41% 41% +21.7%
all 22 -7.1% -16.0% 41% 41% +21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 41% +21.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 41% +10.1%
15% -31.4% 41% -0.6%
20% -38.1% 41% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$12,246) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15,063 vs −$5,135 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized+$70,872
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,952
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage338d
Avg bet$8,372
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $175 −$25 (-12%)
Matt Olson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 26¢ 22¢ $97 $84 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25,333 −$25,002 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $9,832 −$9,690 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,462 −$1,440 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $13,089 +$22,911 +175%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4,062 −$667 -16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50,000 +$39,606 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $21,624 −$21,051 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $4,140 −$4,080 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5,100 +$10,034 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10,189 +$16,810 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $12,246 +$15,466 +126%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $15,207 +$12,542 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $348 −$340 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $938 −$922 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $9,124 +$7,525 +82%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $94 −$91 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $520 −$512 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $850 −$835 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $9,113 +$6,388 +70%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $5,197 +$4,285 +82%
Will Byron Buxton win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? Apr 26 $919 −$919 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Apr 26 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $464 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $137 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $59 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $23 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $235 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $75 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $49 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $24,282 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $9,832 3d
Matt Olson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 SELL Over $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,462 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $1,275 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $128 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5,843 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5,843 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 45¢ $3,394 4d
Matt Olson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $133 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $4,062 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $89,605 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $146 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $49,854 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 53¢ $275 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $21,624 9d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 51¢ $2,070 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 51¢ $2,070 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $15,134 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.33 · official $259.33 (match) · 63 history records