Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7aa0…63af sports 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+38%) realized +$17 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 137L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$35
other 23% +$26
politics 3% +$7
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -16.0% -24.0% 7% 7% +14.5%
≤30d 148 -16.0% -24.0% 7% 7% +14.5%
≤90d 148 -16.0% -24.0% 7% 7% +14.5%
all 148 -16.0% -24.0% 7% 7% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 7% +14.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 7% +3.5%
15% -37.9% 7% -6.5%
20% -44.0% 7% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×17.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 137
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions31
Markets (closed)148 / 179
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Omnix vs Aura Farmers (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legends Close Qualifiers Omnix 5¢ 73¢ $1 $18 +$16 (+1360%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 8¢ 72¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+800%)
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-1.5) vs Cyber Hero (+1.5) FORZE Esports 1¢ 25¢ $0 $10 +$9 (+2405%)
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Flame Team 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will AutoSleep: Watch Sleep Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fury vs HL tauri Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia - Stage 1 Group Stage HL tauri Esports 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Fancy United 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs The Soulless Team - Game 2 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: CH (-1.5) vs HARD GRIND (+1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-1.5) vs The Soulless Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $0 +$7 +1548%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 +$5 +596%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $1 +$23 +1845%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacif Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ex-RUBY (-6.5) vs illwill (+6.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: CR (-1.5) vs Roar Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Omnix vs Aura Farmers (BO3) - BetBoom Rise o BUY Omnix 5¢ $1 9m
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-1.5) vs Cyber Hero (+1.5) BUY FORZE Esports 1¢ $0 19m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 33m
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P BUY Fancy United 0¢ $0 37m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 8¢ $1 53m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 7¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fury vs HL tauri Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific Leagu BUY HL tauri Esports 0¢ $0 6h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) BUY Cloud Rising 0¢ $0 8h
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) BUY Game Master 0¢ $0 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 10h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 0¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 8¢ $1 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 9¢ $1 18h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 14¢ $1 20h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 6¢ $0 20h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 20h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 8¢ $1 20h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) BUY FUT Esports 0¢ $0 23h
Game Handicap: CH (-1.5) vs HARD GRIND (+1.5) BUY HARD GRIND 0¢ $0 23h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris BUY HARD GRIND 0¢ $0 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-1.5) vs The Soulless Team (+1.5) BUY The Soulless Team 0¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.14 · official $47.19 (match) · 343 history records