Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7A 0x7a9e…8ed7 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$177 (-49%) realized −$178 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 157d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$200
other 43% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.8% -41.0% 14% 14% -64.3%
≤30d 7 -34.8% -41.0% 14% 14% -64.3%
≤90d 7 -34.8% -41.0% 14% 14% -64.3%
all 8 -42.9% -48.4% 12% 12% -64.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 12% -64.4%
10% -53.3% 12% -67.8%
15% -57.8% 12% -71.0%
20% -62.0% 12% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$43 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage157d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $29 +$102 +355%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 66¢ $131 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 6h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 6h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 32h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 32h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $202 32h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.50 · official $22.50 (match) · 13 history records