Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7a9e…a1ed crypto 1205 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized −$271 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate92%1105W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$62
14 days−$121
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 65% -33.6%
≤30d 1005 -0.9% -10.3% 91% 23% -10.1%
≤90d 1204 -0.8% -10.2% 92% 22% -10.1%
all 1204 -0.8% -10.2% 92% 22% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 22% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 3% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 0.44323875968188325% → late -2.024037419134459% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$34 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1105 / 99
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1204 / 1205
History coverage46d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 72¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 0¢ 66¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.32 · official $8.50 (match) · 3500 history records