Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a9e…13d2 politics 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,134 (-1%) realized −$2,134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%22W / 137L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,533per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$42
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1,572
politics 40% −$120
sports 11% −$462
world 2% −$10
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 -7.6% -16.4% 2% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 92 -6.6% -15.5% 2% 0% -9.8%
all 159 -5.5% -14.5% 14% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 9% -10.3%
10% -22.7% 9% -18.9%
15% -30.2% 8% -26.7%
20% -37.0% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,180) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$23 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized−$2,134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses22 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)159 / 161
History coverage135d
Avg bet$1,533
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $230 $230 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $226 $226 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 29 $2,771 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2,016 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $4,677 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,789 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,063 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,301 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $637 +$4 +1%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5,533 −$7 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,571 −$6 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,180 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $532 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,308 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,919 −$4 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,411 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $616 −$1 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,773 −$4 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $647 −$1 -0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 02 $86 −$86 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,231 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,620 −$5 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $806 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $555 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $2,707 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,776 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $3,281 −$4 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $315 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $315 3h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $340 5h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $340 9h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $230 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $314 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $314 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $432 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $433 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $349 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $350 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $340 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $340 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $563 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $563 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $473 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $474 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $448 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $449 7d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $592 7d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $593 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $567 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $568 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $596 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $597 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $386 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $387 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $517 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.81 · official $456.81 (match) · 577 history records