Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a9e…9398 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate55%26W / 21L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$3
crypto 5% +$1
other 2% +$14
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 47 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 4% -9.2%
10% -15.3% 4% -17.9%
15% -23.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -31.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses26 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage514d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May? Jun 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 07 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of April? May 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Apr 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 02 $50 $0 +1%
Will Pump.fun reach $0.010 before August? Aug 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $852 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $869 −$1 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhau Feb 26 $9 +$12 +138%
Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Feb 26 $35 +$2 +5%
Spurs vs. Pelicans Feb 25 $17 $0 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Feb 24 $14 $0 -1%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Feb 22 $16 $0 -3%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Feb 22 $12 $0 +3%
Silva vs. Baghdasaryan Feb 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-02-19? Feb 19 $4 $0 -2%
Grizzlies vs. Magic Feb 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Knicks Feb 17 $9 $0 -1%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-02-18? Feb 16 $20 $0 +0%
Jones - Aspinall date announced before April? Feb 15 $7 −$1 -8%
Hornets vs. Nets Feb 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Feb 09 $2 $0 -2%
Stars vs. Sharks Feb 08 $4 $0 -3%
Celtics vs. Knicks Feb 07 $20 +$9 +45%
Avalanche vs. Flames Feb 06 $8 $0 +2%
Magic vs. Kings Feb 05 $12 $0 -3%
Suns vs. Thunder Feb 04 $20 $0 +1%
Senators vs. Predators Feb 04 $14 −$1 -9%
Hawks vs. Pacers Feb 01 $10 $0 -1%
Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik Jan 30 $7 $0 -1%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Jan 30 $6 $0 -5%
Bills vs. Chiefs Jan 24 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $96 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $44 30d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 59d
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 84d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $43 145d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $48 206d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 99¢ $50 244d
Will Pump.fun reach $0.010 before August? BUY No 100¢ $1 330d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 361d
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 423d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? BUY No 99¢ $1 423d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 430d
Ethereum all time high by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 454d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 455d
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 465d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $851 474d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $852 474d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $868 474d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $869 474d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $835 474d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $836 474d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $863 474d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $864 474d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $837 474d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $838 474d
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $2 479d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 479d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.66 · official $37.66 (match) · 127 history records