Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a9c…cffb other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%40W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$8
14 days−$5
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$16
sports 20% −$26
other 12% +$7
politics 9% −$12
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 25 +40.7% +27.3% 36% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 33 +30.1% +17.7% 33% 6% -9.8%
all 94 +9.8% -0.7% 43% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 5% -9.7%
10% -10.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -18.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -26.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses40 / 54
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage466d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $68 −$7 -11%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $170 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $196 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $178 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 −$3 -10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $195 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $119 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $177 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $32 +$4 +13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $190 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $194 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $359 +$3 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $172 +$8 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $171 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $199 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $185 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $169 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $37 +$4 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $178 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $157 +$9 +6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $1,054 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,087 +$5 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $345 −$33 -10%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $543 −$13 -2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $9 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 23 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $88 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $93 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $181 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $67 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $58 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $112 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $48 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $46 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $68 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $30 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $60 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $170 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $151 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $196 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $196 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $97 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $0.00 · 415 history records