Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a97…fe97 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-5%) realized −$66 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$42
other 45% −$62
world 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 29% -16.8%
≤30d 21 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 29% -16.8%
≤90d 22 -19.7% -27.3% 41% 27% -17.0%
all 22 -19.7% -27.3% 41% 27% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 27% -17.0%
10% -34.3% 27% -25.0%
15% -40.6% 18% -32.2%
20% -46.5% 14% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage68d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 61¢ 86¢ $85 $120 +$34 (+40%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 51¢ 70¢ $51 $70 +$20 (+38%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Yes 10¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $63 +$37 +58%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $31 −$10 -32%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $96 +$44 +46%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$4 -52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 −$7 -52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 −$18 -56%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $18 +$15 +88%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $14 +$4 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $36 −$23 -63%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $34 +$2 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 −$5 -9%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $33 $0 -1%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $31 +$2 +7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$7 +69%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +35%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$19 -70%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 61¢ $3 52m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 61¢ $83 52m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 51¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 19h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 21h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 67¢ $96 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $18 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $14 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 23¢ $13 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $36 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 93¢ $34 4d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 75¢ $28 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $26 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 16¢ $26 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 19¢ $33 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 48¢ $11 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 48¢ $22 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 47¢ $33 5d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.34 · official $190.34 (match) · 49 history records