Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a96…4174 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-14%) realized −$55 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%24W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$71
sports 9% +$14
other 7% −$9
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.1% -36.7% 20% 20% -0.4%
≤30d 5 -30.1% -36.7% 20% 20% -0.4%
≤90d 45 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 42% -24.3%
all 45 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 42% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 42% -24.3%
10% -21.4% 38% -31.5%
15% -29.0% 33% -38.1%
20% -36.0% 31% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses24 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage64d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? May 04 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? May 04 $8 +$1 +10%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 19 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 19 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 13 $25 −$16 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 13 $29 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 13 $28 −$20 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 13 $29 −$26 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 13 $19 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 13 $7 +$7 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 13 $8 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 13 $9 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 13 $8 +$8 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 13 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 13 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 13 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 13 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 13 $8 +$8 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 13 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 13 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 13 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 13 $6 +$6 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 22h
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 43d
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 61d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 61d
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? BUY No 91¢ $8 61d
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? BUY No 91¢ $8 62d
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 62d
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? BUY No 86¢ $9 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $7 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $11 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.60 · official $1.60 (match) · 169 history records