Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a96…b71d sports 851 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$184 (+4%) realized +$104 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%406W / 443L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$319
7 days−$240
14 days−$148
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$236
crypto 32% −$25
other 4% −$31
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -5.2% -14.3% 26% 26% -27.9%
≤30d 371 +17.1% +5.9% 42% 40% -6.2%
≤90d 442 +16.1% +5.0% 42% 41% -6.1%
all 849 +7.1% -3.1% 48% 46% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 46% -7.8%
10% -12.4% 43% -16.6%
15% -20.9% 37% -24.7%
20% -28.6% 30% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses406 / 443
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)849 / 851
History coverage158d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 849 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group B ex-Sashi Academy 49¢ 100¢ $77 $157 +$80 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
ITF Rome: Madison Brengle vs Amelia Honer Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants Jun 26 $6 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 25 $19 −$7 -39%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $13 −$13 -97%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Anna Kubareva vs Aliona Falei Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira Jun 25 $12 −$11 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 25 $3 +$1 +57%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Reg Jun 25 $50 −$3 -5%
ITF Maanshan: Tiana Tian Deng vs Jing-Jing Lu Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs I Wen Wan Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 25 $7 −$2 -27%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $23 +$35 +152%
ITF Claremont: Benjamin O'connell vs Nicholas Godsick Jun 24 $21 +$45 +216%
ITF Claremont: Henry Wilson vs Bryce Nakashima Jun 24 $13 +$2 +14%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 24 $7 $0 -2%
ITF Alkmaar: Madelief Hageman vs Monika Wojcik Jun 24 $1 +$1 +165%
ITF Monastir: Livia Keller vs Lourdes Ayala Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Valorant: la Masia vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 23 $1 −$1 -58%
ITF Tarvisio: Noemi Maines vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 23 $1 −$1 -53%
ITF Bergamo: Federico Arnaboldi vs Niccolo Ciavarella Jun 23 $0 $0 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $14 +$40 +291%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $22 +$23 +102%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $11 −$5 -44%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $1 $0 -3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17 +$31 +180%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 23 $19 +$15 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $9 −$3 -40%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jun 22 $50 −$2 -5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 22 $6 −$1 -11%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 48¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 49¢ $40 1h
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Paulo Dos Santos 9¢ $3 1h
ITF Rome: Madison Brengle vs Amelia Honer BUY Madison Brengle 30¢ $20 2h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants SELL Lotte Giants 100¢ $7 4h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 83¢ $6 5h
ITF Taipei: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Dayeon Back BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 61¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra SELL Inner Circle Esports 11¢ $11 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 18¢ $19 17h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 10¢ $13 18h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Anna Kubareva vs Aliona Falei BUY Aliona Falei 14¢ $2 21h
Piracicaba: Nick Hardt vs Nicolas Oliveira BUY Nicolas Oliveira 14¢ $12 26h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 100¢ $4 27h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 63¢ $3 28h
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Reg SELL Chivas Esports 100¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament SELL DEPO 19¢ $5 33h
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY DEPO 25¢ $7 33h
ITF Maanshan: Tiana Tian Deng vs Jing-Jing Lu BUY Tiana Tian Deng 17¢ $0 35h
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs I Wen Wan BUY I Wen Wan 71¢ $40 37h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 39¢ $23 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 38h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $28 40h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 30¢ $23 40h
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Reg SELL Chivas Esports 91¢ $46 42h
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Reg BUY Chivas Esports 95¢ $50 42h
ITF Claremont: Benjamin O'connell vs Nicholas Godsick BUY Benjamin Oconnell 31¢ $21 43h
ITF Claremont: Henry Wilson vs Bryce Nakashima BUY Bryce Nakashima 87¢ $13 43h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S SELL Virtus.pro 46¢ $3 44h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S SELL Virtus.pro 44¢ $4 44h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S BUY Virtus.pro 44¢ $7 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.66 · official $140.13 · 2282 history records