Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7A 0x7a94…653a other 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%52W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$270
14 days+$321
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$148
other 47% +$129
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +65.8% +50.0% 43% 43% +32.8%
≤30d 70 +30.4% +18.0% 44% 43% +1.4%
≤90d 111 +25.7% +13.7% 47% 44% -6.6%
all 111 +25.7% +13.7% 47% 44% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 44% -6.6%
10% +2.9% 42% -15.6%
15% -7.1% 41% -23.7%
20% -16.2% 33% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses52 / 59
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)111 / 115
History coverage58d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 21¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Yes 12¢ 11¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $6 −$1 -13%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 +$47 +460%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 23 $11 +$21 +188%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $9 −$8 -91%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$20 +65%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 20 $5 +$31 +596%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $25 −$12 -47%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 20 $15 +$22 +147%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 +$44 +145%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $16 +$15 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$12 +58%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$39 +385%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$56 +549%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $28 +$28 +97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $16 +$37 +226%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 −$4 -4%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $21 +$28 +133%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$8 -41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $13 +$11 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$3 -34%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $5 +$8 +158%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $15 +$15 +99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $40 −$15 -37%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$23 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$20 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $30 28m
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $8 32m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists SELL Yes 34¢ $5 33m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 38¢ $6 33m
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $57 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $15 10h
Michael Olise: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $11 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes $1 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 15h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 24h
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $9 32h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists SELL Yes 32¢ $10 35h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 35h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $10 36h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $8 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $13 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 40¢ $25 2d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists BUY Yes 40¢ $15 3d
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $15 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $15 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $15 4d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $71 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.53 · official $56.53 (match) · 210 history records