Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a93…f34c crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$358 (-5%) realized −$358 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate72%36W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$161
14 days+$9
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$274
sports 33% +$339
other 23% −$353
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 29% -5.9%
≤30d 37 +9.0% -1.4% 78% 43% -9.3%
≤90d 37 +9.0% -1.4% 78% 43% -9.3%
all 50 +4.4% -5.5% 72% 42% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 42% -13.4%
10% -14.6% 34% -21.7%
15% -22.8% 16% -29.2%
20% -30.4% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$75 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$358
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses36 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage358d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $380 +$98 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $376 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $350 +$29 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $302 +$47 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $288 +$11 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$46 -83%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $273 +$62 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $243 +$32 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $240 +$2 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $222 +$16 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $199 +$16 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $204 +$6 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $180 +$17 +10%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $170 +$9 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 +$9 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $160 +$46 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $105 −$104 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $36 +$21 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $133 −$98 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $76 +$24 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $93 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$4 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $65 +$13 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$17 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $67 +$35 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$3 +286%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $103 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $141 +$11 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $135 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $1 +$2 +195%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on February 25 Feb 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Feb 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 23 Feb 25 $286 −$116 -40%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Feb 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 25 Feb 25 $107 −$105 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 24 Feb 24 $70 +$38 +54%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 22 Feb 22 $117 +$69 +59%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 21 Feb 21 $87 +$30 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 19 Feb 20 $68 +$18 +27%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on July 1? Jul 01 $251 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 30 at 5P Jun 30 $259 −$63 -24%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 27? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $478 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $380 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $378 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $376 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $379 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $350 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $350 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $302 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $288 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $56 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $335 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $273 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $243 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $242 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $240 30h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 32h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $210 32h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $12 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $215 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $199 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $210 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $175 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $170 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $170 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records