Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7A 0x7a90…2827 crypto 1033 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 177d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,612 (+13%) realized +$10,134 · open +$478
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%415W / 607L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$15,470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,731
14 days−$1,141
30 days−$1,141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$3,746
other 32% +$14,180
sports 7% −$2,281
world 1% −$276
finance 1% −$500
weather 0% −$7
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 -41.3% -46.9% 10% 10% -33.7%
≤90d 21 +43.5% +29.8% 14% 14% +56.8%
all 1022 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 39% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -0.6%
10% -23.6% 38% -10.1%
15% -31.0% 36% -18.8%
20% -37.8% 30% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$59 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$15,470
Realized+$10,134
Unrealized+$478
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses415 / 607
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1022 / 1033
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1022 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $8,250 $9,225 +$975 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4,968 $4,687 −$281 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $786 −$214 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $74 $118 +$44 (+60%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 13 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 13 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 13 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 13 $567 −$567 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $532 +$2,590 +487%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $80 +$889 +1115%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 19 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $138 −$63 -46%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $1,000 +$10,571 +1057%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 25 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 25 $1,000 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 25 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 24 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 24 $400 +$8 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to Feb 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5,110 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $110 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $2 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $0 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $88 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 6¢ $240 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $3,122 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 5¢ $97 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 5¢ $3 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $532 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $74 16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3,010 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $46 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,469.69 · official $15,480.86 (match) · 3500 history records