Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a8f…d72e other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,976 (+42%) realized +$1,976 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$540
7 days−$540
14 days−$540
30 days−$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$2,305
crypto 27% −$1,210
world 2% −$60
economics 1% −$50
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -46.3% -51.4% 17% 17% -50.0%
≤30d 6 -46.3% -51.4% 17% 17% -50.0%
≤90d 11 -53.5% -57.9% 18% 18% -54.5%
all 26 -37.8% -43.8% 23% 23% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 23% +9.3%
10% -49.1% 23% -1.1%
15% -54.1% 23% -10.7%
20% -58.6% 19% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$596 vs −$131 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,976
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage404d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 25 $207 +$460 +222%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $102 +$50 +49%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $100 −$60 -60%
Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin above $112K on September 5? Sep 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin above $110K on September 5? Sep 04 $100 −$100 -100%
US-EU trade deal before June? May 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? May 22 $170 +$235 +138%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? May 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 18 $335 −$335 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $500 +$1,390 +278%
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 18 $500 +$879 +176%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $500 +$564 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 39d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No $105 39d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $105 39d
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $103 39d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 39d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $40 39d
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $207 39d
Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $98 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 129d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $10 129d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 129d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 154d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $20 154d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $10 154d
Bitcoin above $112K on September 5? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 294d
Bitcoin above $110K on September 5? BUY No 36¢ $100 294d
US-EU trade deal before June? BUY Yes $200 397d
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? BUY Yes 42¢ $170 400d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 403d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? BUY Yes $20 403d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? BUY Yes 26¢ $500 403d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 47¢ $500 403d
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? BUY Yes 41¢ $335 403d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records