trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -46.3% | -51.4% | 17% | 17% | -50.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -46.3% | -51.4% | 17% | 17% | -50.0% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -53.5% | -57.9% | 18% | 18% | -54.5% |
| all | 26 | -37.8% | -43.8% | 23% | 23% | +9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -43.8% | 23% | +9.3% |
| 10% | -49.1% | 23% | -1.1% |
| 15% | -54.1% | 23% | -10.7% |
| 20% | -58.6% | 19% | -19.4% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | Jun 25 | $414 | −$400 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | Jun 25 | $210 | −$200 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | Jun 25 | $105 | −$100 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | Jun 25 | $211 | −$200 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Jun 25 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | Jun 25 | $207 | +$460 | +222% |
| Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $102 | +$50 | +49% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $105 | −$100 | -96% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $105 | −$100 | -96% |
| Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $103 | −$100 | -97% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $100 | −$60 | -60% |
| Will Italy be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | Mar 26 | $98 | −$98 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | Feb 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? | Feb 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | Feb 16 | $130 | −$130 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $112K on September 5? | Sep 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $110K on September 5? | Sep 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| US-EU trade deal before June? | May 24 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? | May 22 | $170 | +$235 | +138% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | May 18 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | May 18 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? | May 18 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? | May 18 | $335 | −$335 | -100% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | May 18 | $500 | +$1,390 | +278% |
| Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | May 18 | $500 | +$879 | +176% |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? | May 18 | $500 | +$564 | +113% |