Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a8e…d88c sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$42 (+2%) realized +$45 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%46W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$221
14 days−$237
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$27
crypto 25% −$252
other 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.0% -45.7% 43% 29% -49.1%
≤30d 63 -2.0% -11.3% 59% 57% -22.5%
≤90d 81 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 56% -18.8%
all 81 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 56% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 56% -18.8%
10% -17.9% 53% -26.5%
15% -25.9% 37% -33.6%
20% -33.1% 31% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$28 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses46 / 35
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage40d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $237 −$174 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$30 +58%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $10 +$8 +81%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $51 +$31 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $41 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $10 +$12 +114%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $10 +$4 +42%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Lautaro Midon Jun 03 $10 +$2 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Tristan Boyer Jun 03 $10 +$4 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $13 −$13 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Perugia: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 02 $10 +$4 +39%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $10 +$6 +62%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg Jun 02 $10 +$2 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $20 +$10 +51%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $10 +$3 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $5 +$10 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $2 +$8 +388%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $10 +$9 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $10 +$13 +124%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $10 $0 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $10 +$9 +90%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $15 +$12 +76%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka May 28 $10 +$6 +59%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $20 +$6 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $21 +$6 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $11 −$11 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $50 +$20 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $10 +$6 +59%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $50 +$7 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $41 +$30 +75%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $81 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 5d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens SELL Anastasia Potapova 99¢ $18 9d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Iva Jovic 100¢ $82 9d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Anastasia Potapova 54¢ $10 9d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 57¢ $20 9d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 61¢ $51 9d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 65¢ $10 9d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 46¢ $20 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 41¢ $10 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 20¢ $10 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 57¢ $10 15d
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu BUY Adam Walton 70¢ $10 15d
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov BUY Timofey Skatov 46¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.28 · official $7.28 (match) · 167 history records