Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a8d…5449 sports 103 markets active 6d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$8
politics 20% −$6
world 15% −$8
sports 13% −$9
economics 8% −$1
finance 8% −$2
crypto 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -23.5% -30.8% 0% 0% -30.8%
≤30d 7 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 70 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 100 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage92d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $24 −$6 -24%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $28 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $23 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 02 $20 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $12 $0 -4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 10 $2 $0 -12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 10 $2 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 09 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $3 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $50 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $366 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 08 $1,872 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 06 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $195 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $356 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $270 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 06 $612 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 05 $942 −$1 -0%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 05 $130 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 05 $50 $0 -0%
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 04 $50 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $141 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $415 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 01 $310 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $13 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $18 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $5 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $5 6d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 13d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 74¢ $21 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 19¢ $2 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $6 14d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $17 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 14d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 14d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 59¢ $12 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $8 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 76¢ $23 15d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 16d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $20 16d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 36¢ $10 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 17d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 36d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 1222 history records