Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a8d…23ac other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$61 (-8%) realized +$30 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$21
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$99
crypto 6% −$2
sports 5% +$16
finance 1% −$9
tech 1% −$2
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -60.3% -64.0% 0% 0% -61.7%
≤90d 4 -60.3% -64.0% 0% 0% -61.7%
all 43 +22.7% +11.0% 30% 28% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.0% 28% -11.1%
10% +0.4% 28% -19.6%
15% -9.3% 28% -27.3%
20% -18.2% 28% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage307d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $193 $105 −$88 (-46%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$9 -44%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$12 -58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $40 −$16 -39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Sep 22 $10 −$8 -79%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Sep 22 $4 +$20 +464%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Sep 21 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Sep 21 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 19 $9 −$8 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 16 $19 +$15 +80%
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference? Sep 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1? Sep 14 $15 +$14 +96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 14 $30 −$9 -31%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sep 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $10 +$35 +349%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Sep 10 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12? Sep 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12? Sep 07 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho Sep 06 $19 +$22 +117%
Will Elon tweet between 450 and 479 times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $12 +$16 +132%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? Sep 04 $8 +$6 +76%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Putin" during "Fighting Oligarchy" speech on Sep 02 $2 +$11 +426%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 01 $8 −$2 -30%
Will Bernie Sanders say "One Percent" 4+ times during "Fighting Oligar Sep 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Corruption" during "Fighting Oligarchy" speec Sep 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? Aug 31 $4 −$3 -74%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30-35 million views on day 1? Aug 31 $3 +$7 +240%
Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5? Aug 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times August 29–September 5? Aug 30 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? Aug 29 $2 +$9 +525%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? Aug 29 $4 +$25 +554%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $4 +$8 +183%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times August 22–August 29? Aug 26 $4 −$3 -68%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $2 $0 -17%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $20 −$9 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 37¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $47 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 19¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $24 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $24 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 16d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 17d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 17d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $81 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 134d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY Yes 17¢ $7 183d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY Yes 18¢ $10 183d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 16 to September 23, SELL Yes 4¢ $2 278d
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? SELL No 55¢ $13 278d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 16 to September 23, SELL Yes 2¢ $1 279d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 16 to September 23, SELL Yes 20¢ $7 279d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.43 · official $170.24 · 120 history records