Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a8c…1ddc weather 301 markets active 3h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+6%) realized +$33 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%106W / 180L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% +$42
crypto 16% −$15
other 13% $0
sports 9% +$7
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +10.5% +0.0% 42% 41% -1.8%
≤30d 143 -1.9% -11.3% 41% 38% -15.6%
≤90d 286 -0.9% -10.4% 37% 35% -3.6%
all 286 -0.9% -10.4% 37% 35% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 35% -3.6%
10% -19.0% 33% -12.8%
15% -26.8% 31% -21.2%
20% -34.0% 29% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses106 / 180
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)286 / 301
History coverage52d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 21¢ $7 $21 +$14 (+217%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 8¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -45%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +66%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +547%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -39%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$6 -72%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +267%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$14 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +148%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -74%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +256%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +91%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $1 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 23¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 18¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.52 · official $52.52 · 620 history records