Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a87…840e other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$205 (-92%) realized −$205 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$217
sports 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +145.6% +122.2% 100% 100% +122.2%
≤90d 1 +145.6% +122.2% 100% 100% +122.2%
all 3 -18.1% -25.9% 33% 33% -96.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 33% -96.2%
10% -33.0% 33% -96.6%
15% -39.5% 33% -96.9%
20% -45.4% 33% -97.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +146% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$105 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage588d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 6¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-80%)
Will Son Heung-min sign with a new club during the transfer window? No 70¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Villa win on 2024-11-03? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 30 $4 +$5 +146%
Will Son Heung-min sign with a new club during the transfer window? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Villa win on 2024-11-03? Nov 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 1h
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Dooho Choi 40¢ $4 29d
Will Son Heung-min sign with a new club during the transfer window? BUY No 70¢ $200 363d
Will Villa win on 2024-11-03? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 588d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.78 · official $1.78 (match) · 5 history records