Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7A 0x7a85…9b97 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$67 (-3%) realized −$66 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$218
other 24% −$207
sports 20% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.1% -1.3% 28% 28% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +9.1% -1.3% 28% 28% -9.5%
≤90d 18 +9.1% -1.3% 28% 28% -9.5%
all 18 +9.1% -1.3% 28% 28% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 28% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 28% -18.2%
15% -19.4% 28% -26.1%
20% -27.3% 28% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$78 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 15¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$115 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $115 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $135 +$298 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$223 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $114 +$183 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $47 +$242 +510%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $350 −$344 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $360 −$14 -4%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $15 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $91 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $220 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $104 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $303 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $296 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.17 · official $57.50 · 57 history records