Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a85…3c54 sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$299 (-37%) realized −$269 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%10W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$10
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 41% −$148
other 33% −$11
sports 25% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 17 -68.8% -71.7% 18% 18% -75.2%
≤90d 53 -56.4% -60.5% 19% 19% -68.1%
all 53 -56.4% -60.5% 19% 19% -68.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.5% 19% -68.1%
10% ← realistic here -64.3% 15% -71.2%
15% -67.8% 15% -74.0%
20% -70.9% 15% -76.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$269
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 43
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage57d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $21 $25 +$4 (+17%)
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $20 $8 −$13 (-62%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $19 $6 −$12 (-65%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $20 +$3 +16%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 01 $15 −$15 -99%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $16 −$12 -73%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $69 −$12 -17%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $42 −$24 -57%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $33 −$32 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $40 −$33 -81%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Dayana Yastremska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 25 $12 −$5 -41%
Will Emma Raducanu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $3 +$2 +76%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Victoria Azarenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 17 $9 −$2 -28%
Will Ons Jabeur win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 16 $7 −$1 -14%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Danielle Collins win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 12 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Yulia Putintseva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 12 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Daria Kasatkina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 12 $9 −$2 -20%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $7 +$4 +60%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $10 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $1 +$1 +146%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $5 +$1 +21%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $14 −$11 -81%
Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 27 $2 +$1 +60%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 26 $1 +$1 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.35 · official $74.35 (match) · 1415 history records