trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Gen.G | 88¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | KT Rolster | 39¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | G2 Esports | 31¢ | 0¢ | $14 | $0 | −$14 (-100%) |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) | Anyones Legend | 53¢ | 0¢ | $12 | $0 | −$12 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan | Jan 24 | $20 | +$6 | +32% |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Nov 05 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Nov 01 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) | Oct 31 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | Oct 30 | $15 | −$14 | -94% |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) | Oct 29 | $25 | +$2 | +9% |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner | Oct 29 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) | Oct 29 | $20 | +$5 | +27% |
| Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Oct 28 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? | Oct 28 | $10 | +$1 | +13% |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) | Oct 27 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Oct 24 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Oct 24 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Oct 24 | $1 | −$1 | -72% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 14 | -27.0% | -34.0% | 50% | 21% | -25.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.0% | 21% | -25.7% |
| 10% | -40.3% | 14% | -32.9% |
| 15% | -46.1% | 0% | -39.3% |
| 20% | -51.4% | 0% | -45.3% |