Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a7d…d997 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,061per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 25% 25% -33.8%
≤30d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 25% 25% -33.8%
≤90d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 25% 25% -33.8%
all 4 -14.8% -22.9% 25% 25% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 25% -33.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 25% -40.2%
15% -37.0% 25% -45.9%
20% -43.2% 25% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$487 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,061
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $103 −$18 -17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5,115 −$1,422 -28%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $47 +$40 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 7¢ $85 5m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 27¢ $1,227 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 55¢ $2,328 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $4,988 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $87 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.00 · official $21.00 (match) · 12 history records