Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a76…8490 sports 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$391 (-9%) realized −$388 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%38W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$384
14 days−$467
30 days−$522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$109
other 25% −$488
crypto 1% +$24
world 1% −$28
politics 0% −$15
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -40.8% -46.5% 21% 21% -27.9%
≤30d 149 -39.3% -45.1% 23% 23% -21.4%
≤90d 158 -36.6% -42.6% 24% 23% -18.4%
all 158 -36.6% -42.6% 24% 23% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 23% -18.4%
10% -48.1% 23% -26.2%
15% -53.1% 21% -33.3%
20% -57.7% 18% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$16 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$388
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses38 / 120
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 163
History coverage50d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $51 +$16 +32%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $41 +$52 +129%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $51 −$30 -60%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$26 -52%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $46 −$17 -38%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$27 -54%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -29%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $21 +$44 +215%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 +$62 +61%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U Jun 25 $20 +$38 +186%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$45 +90%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$44 +44%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$23 +45%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $137 −$135 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 −$50 -49%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 +$34 +328%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $20 −$11 -53%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $20 −$3 -13%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $152 +$147 +97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $108 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 15h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 36h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $67 41h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 42h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $41 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 53¢ $20 46h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 23¢ $20 46h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 46h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $24 46h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $28 46h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $25 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $23 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.45 · official $57.45 (match) · 291 history records