Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7a76…dcb3 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$12 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$12
weather 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.2% -6.6% 53% 53% -5.5%
≤30d 15 +3.2% -6.6% 53% 53% -5.5%
≤90d 34 -40.8% -46.4% 29% 29% -9.1%
all 34 -40.8% -46.4% 29% 29% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.4% 29% -9.1%
10% -51.6% 24% -17.8%
15% -56.2% 15% -25.7%
20% -60.5% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage45d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 46¢ 50¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 53¢ 50¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $73 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$14 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 12? May 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 11? May 11 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 8? May 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 9? May 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 9? May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 9? May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 7? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 57°F or below on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 7? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $17 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.23 · official $38.23 (match) · 137 history records