Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a74…f086 world 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%22W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$15
other 31% −$15
politics 18% $0
sports 13% +$9
economics 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 19 -5.1% -14.2% 16% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 62 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 5% -10.2%
all 67 +3.6% -6.2% 33% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 10% -10.4%
10% -15.2% 9% -19.0%
15% -23.4% 4% -26.8%
20% -30.9% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses22 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage531d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $27 $0 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $29 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $26 $0 -2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $56 −$7 -13%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $23 −$7 -29%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $66 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $62 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $115 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 $0 +11%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $83 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $19 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $18 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $10 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $28 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $28 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $28 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 92¢ $1 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $25 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $25 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $20 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $28 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $29 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $0.00 · 266 history records