Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7A 0x7a73…7944 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1
politics 34% −$1
crypto 22% +$5
world 5% $0
sports 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 13 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 8% -8.3%
≤90d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 19% -8.9%
all 17 -0.4% -9.9% 41% 18% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 18% -9.0%
10% -18.5% 12% -17.7%
15% -26.4% 6% -25.6%
20% -33.6% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage149d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $69 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 89¢ 88¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 25 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 26 $1 $0 +15%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 26 $1 +$1 +67%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 27 $2 $0 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $19 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $69 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 89¢ $55 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $56 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $72 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 2d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $73 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $56 2d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $5 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $75 2d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $4 16d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 16d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $30 16d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $75 16d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $1 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $1 16d
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 93¢ $3 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 80¢ $12 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $12 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $39 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $10 33d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 75¢ $11 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 33d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY G2 Esports 59¢ $1 50d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $1 50d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $1 50d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.40 · official $142.40 (match) · 73 history records