trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +14.3% | +3.4% | 50% | 50% | -31.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +16.3% | +5.2% | 89% | 22% | -5.6% |
| all | 16 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 81% | 12% | -6.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.4% | 12% | -6.2% |
| 10% | -20.8% | 12% | -15.2% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 12% | -23.4% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 12% | -30.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | No | 57¢ | 56¢ | $291 | $288 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 44¢ | 44¢ | $78 | $77 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 10 | $353 | −$348 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $173 | +$223 | +129% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | May 23 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Wild vs. Stars | May 23 | $143 | +$163 | +114% |
| Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 | Apr 28 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Apr 28 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb | Apr 28 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Apr 28 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Heat vs. Hornets | Apr 28 | $218 | +$2 | +1% |
| Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? | Feb 04 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 04 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? | Feb 04 | $22 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? | Feb 04 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? | Feb 04 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Jan 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Jan 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |